DASHFLASH: Latest Economic Indicators Released by CERC Confirm Some Positive Signs for State's Recovery

1/29/2010

Contact:
Kristi Sullivan, 860.571.6213

Economic indicators posted by the Connecticut Economic Resource Center, Inc. (CERC), Connecticut’s nonprofit economic development corporation that conducts statewide research, confirm that the state’s economy is bottoming out and will slowly get better. CERC’s interactive, web-based Dashboards provide Connecticut businesses with a unique and critical perspective on Connecticut’s competitive performance.

The latest CERC DashFlash shows:

• The state’s unemployment rate is perhaps the most negative indicator. December 2009’s unemployment rate of 8.9% is 0.7% higher than the prior month (November 2009) and 0.2% higher than the highest previously observed rate in the state (February 1992). However, it’s not as bad as it sounds – the rate from October 2009 (8.8%) brings the December’s rate into better perspective. Also, Connecticut fares better than the nation’s rate of 10.0%. And finally, the unemployment rate is likely to lag other indicators as firms will be slow to rehire workers also improves the perception of Connecticut’s recovery.
• New weekly unemployment claims, improved in December to slightly more than 700 seasonally adjusted claims per week. This continues a positive trend that started in August 2009.
• Employment while still declining by an average of 570 jobs a month, over the last three months, has slowed from the average loss of 4,300 per month between March 2008 and September 2009.
• The trend in the loss of the number of businesses in the state has clearly flattened and a slight reduction in the average of the losses is observed for the most recent measure. 
• The change in the coincident indicators has been improving since January 2009. And for the first time in since March 2008, the 0.12 % change in the index from the previous month was positive in November.
• The 12-month moving average in state government revenues also shows a slight increase between October and November 2009. The underlying monthly revenues for November 2009 were nearly $174 million more than November 2008.
• New house permits show a continued decline as measured by a 12-month moving average to account for seasonality. However, even this metric reveals some positive news. While at 235 housing permits, November 2009 was above seven of the last 12 months – and construction jobs, a critical part of the housing market, have increased since July 2009 by 1,300.

The CERC Dashboards also provides data about Connecticut’s economic performance in business and economic vitality, government, transportation, urban vitality, workforce, housing and education – and are available online at www.cerc.com/Content/Dashboard.asp.

About CERC – Based in Rocky Hill, CERC is a nonprofit corporation and public-private partnership that provides clients with objective research, marketing and economic development services consistent with our mission of making Connecticut a more competitive business environment. For more information, visit www.cerc.com.

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